False Cause
Assuming that because two things are linked, one must have caused the other.
- informal
The false cause fallacy (including post hoc ergo propter hoc) infers a causal link from mere correlation or sequence: because B followed A, or B occurs alongside A, A must have caused B. But the two may be coincidental, both driven by a third factor, or related in the reverse direction.
Examples
- “I wore my lucky socks and we won the game, so the socks brought us the victory.”
- “Ice cream sales and drowning deaths both rise in summer, so eating ice cream must cause drowning.”
Why it works & how to counter
Persuasive because the mind naturally links things that happen together. Counter it by asking whether there's a real mechanism, a hidden common cause, or just coincidence behind the correlation.