The Texas Sharpshooter
Cherry-picking clusters in data to fit a pattern while ignoring what doesn't fit.
- informal
The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is named for someone who fires at a barn and then paints a target around the tightest cluster of bullet holes. It seizes on a pattern after the fact — emphasizing the hits and ignoring the misses — and presents it as a meaningful signal rather than the chance clustering it may be.
Examples
- “Five towns near the plant have high cancer rates — proof it causes cancer,” while ignoring the many nearby towns with normal rates.
- “The psychic said I'd face ‘a big change,’ and months later I changed jobs — she's the real deal,” overlooking all her vague misses.
Why it works & how to counter
Persuasive because a highlighted cluster looks like a real signal. Counter it by asking whether the pattern was specified in advance and whether the misses were counted, not just the hits.